The Man Who Doesn’t Smile Is Smiling Now

Donald Trump is a happy man. For a while now, he has had to deal with the negative headlines about his tariff policies and the cruelty of the so-called “big beautiful bill.” His populist base complained about cuts to Medicaid, tax breaks for the rich, and the grift of his administration best represented by the gaudy gift from Qatar and the way he has monetized the presidency.

His falling out with Elon Musk can be understood as a clash between two factions of his MAGA coalition: the corporatists and the reactionary populists. Musk’s exit suggests who won. And the heightening drama between the two billionaires made for good television and sensational headlines. Still, Republicans have had to face the ire of the base in townhalls. Boos and heckles announced a deepening dissatisfaction with Trump and his policies.

---

---

But the protests in Los Angeles have brought a smile to his face and to the likes of Stephen Miller. ICE has been a relative bright spot for Trump. For the most part, his base has supported his hardline on immigration with a few exceptions. There were some cracks with the deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia to El Salvador and in the town of Kennett, Missouri, following the arrest of Carol Mayorga, a mother of three and longtime resident. The repeated defeats in the courts also upset the execution of his policy.

The clashes between Homeland Security agents and residents in Paramount, a majority Latino city south of Los Angeles, have given him an opportunity to reboot everything. Stephen Miller was so excited that he announced on X, as protesters surrounded the federal detention center in LA, that this was “an insurrection against the laws and sovereignty of the United States.” I can imagine his mouth salivating as he rubbed his hands together like Dr. Evil from Austin Powers.

The Associated Press reported that tensions were high on Saturday, because of a series of sweeps by immigration officers in the garment district and at a local Home Depot. They had been lurking in the open air all week. ICE terrorized the community. They even arrested “a prominent union leader…accused of impeding law enforcement.”

The community had enough, and federal agents “unleashed tear gas, flash-ban explosives and pepper balls” while “protesters hurled rocks and cement at Border Patrol vehicles.”

As if on cue, invoking his Title 10 authority, Donald Trump ordered 2,000 National Guard troops to the city to “address the lawlessness that has been allowed to fester.” The scene is set. Trump has his standoff. The barbarians at the gate, the feckless liberals (the likes of Governor Gavin Newsome and Mayor Karen Bass) who are willing to surrender the country to disorder, and those who are ready to defend the country at all costs.

Of course, Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth joined in and declared that “If violence continues, active-duty Marines at Camp Pendleton will also be mobilized – they are on high alert.” These people, at the drop of a dime, are ready to deploy the military on American soil. They want to finally dispense with any pretense that the military cannot be used on such occasions.

I wonder what will happen to all the discord among his base as the headlines shift. Will they still be angry about Medicaid, the tax cuts, and the blatant refusal to uphold the rule of law? Or, will they retreat into the ugliness of nativism and find comfort in the bloodlust of Trump and his cabal? Will they call for law and order – punishment without restraint – and forget how Trump doesn’t really give a damn about either?

The politics of grievance and hatred have been Trump’s bread and butter. And with the looping scenes of burning garbage and cars, looting (just saw a quick image in the Charles De Gaulle airport of young men running out of a store with something in their hands) and so-called radicalized “others” in the streets threatening the “sovereignty” of the country, Trump will exploit this moment in every way imaginable. He wants the conflict to escalate. Turning the attention of his base from policies that harm them to the spectacle of the brutal repression of so-called enemies in their midst.

Trump is indeed a happy man. I hope Democrats won’t play their typical role with statements about the importance of lawful protests and demonstrations of their own toughness on lawlessness. They shouldn’t take the bait and, instead, place this escalation squarely on the shoulders of Trump. No matter what happens, we need to brace ourselves for the reset and for the cruelty that has been at the ready, waiting for a moment such as this.

---